Red Flag: NZ mortality up in 2026

Guy Hatchard argues that New Zealand’s latest mortality figures should be treated as a warning sign, with deaths rising in the year to June 2026 while birth and fertility rates continue to fall. Pointing to excess mortality, cardiac and cancer concerns and unprecedented pressure from winter illness, he calls for Health NZ to investigate health outcomes by age, vaccination status and disease type, and make the findings public.

The year ended June 2026 figures for births and deaths have just been released by StatsNZ. Compared to the previous year:

• Births were down 3.6%
• Deaths were up 1.9%
• Fertility per woman was down 3.8%
• Infant mortality was up by 2.7% although this last statistic was inflated to some extent by late registrations.

The rate of deaths per thousand population had been declining since a peak of 7.59 in 2022 falling to 7.02 in 2025. The 2026 figures reversed this trend with a rise to 7.10. This compares to the 2015 - 2019 average of 6.84 meaning that deaths are currently running at 3.8% above pre-pandemic levels. This equates to an additional 1,411 deaths in the year to June 2026 which would not have been expected if pre-pandemic trends had continued.

The NZ fertility rate has been declining every year since 2008 and is now at a historic low. The 2026 figures are 28% below levels necessary to maintain a population. Despite this, the NZ population is continuing to grow as a result of net immigration.

The most concerning figure in the latest data is therefore the upward movement in the rate of mortality. This increase in levels of excess mortality is very concerning. Although the 2026 rise does not yet amount to a trend, it should be a red flag. It points to a drop in the underlying level of immunity which is affecting the whole population. In this light, it remains disturbing that Health NZ are not closely investigating the possible causes. A comparison of health outcomes of the Covid vaccinated with the unvaccinated is long overdue. Studies published overseas which we have covered have pointed to differences in rates of cancer and cardiac problems for example. These have disproportionately affected younger age groups.

RCR has produced a comprehensive report showing that 311,257 NZ teens were exposed to an elevated risk of myocarditis from Covid shots despite the government having been warned of this risk prior to rolling out vaccination for this age group. We have previously reported high levels of chest pain presentations for under 40s at EDs. Prior to the pandemic it was recognised in the literature that there is a five year elevated risk of complications following a myocarditis diagnosis. Five years have now passed since these shots. Health NZ should be following up and producing a very detailed picture of cardiac health outcomes as a precautionary measure.

A great many published studies have focused on investigating an immune deficit following Covid vaccination. Since the year to June figures were compiled more evidence of a health deficit in NZ has emerged. You must have read about the depth of the current flu and winter illness seasonal health crisis. Hospitals are overwhelmed as never before. On August 15 the NZ Herald reported “Middlemore Hospital hits ‘terrifying’ record as paramedics treat patients in corridors” In one 24 hour period nearly 500 patients presented to ED at Middlemore beating the previous record of 280. According to Stuff newspaper, the St John ambulance service activated its major incident response and emergency operations centre after a week of sustained exceptional demand culminated in its busiest day on record. This week Stuff headlined “Flu wards set up, elective surgery cancelled as hospital admissions surge”. The NZ Herald reported high rates of student absences due to sickness and parents unable to cope at home. The Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners has asked practices nationwide to reinstate some Covid-era infection controls, including phone-first triage and separating patients with respiratory symptoms.

Without a detailed investigation of the causes of the higher levels of sickness among the general population broken down by age, vaccination status, and disease type, it is not possible for Health NZ to understand and respond appropriately to the current health crisis. A task force should be set up to undertake this analysis as a precautionary priority and make their findings public. This will inform and potentially reassure the public by determining how much of this effect is due to Covid infection and how much to vaccination or other factors.