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Free Speech Space With MJ with Geoff Neal - “Affordable Housing, Reality or a Politician’s Pipe Dream?”

The Two faces of Promise Versus Delivery




Summary In this conversation, MJ and Jeff Neal discuss the housing crisis in New Zealand. They explore the affordability of housing and the government’s role in addressing the issue. They also discuss the importance of holding politicians accountable and the impact of media bias. The conversation highlights the housing affordability ratio and its significant increase over the years. They analyze the responsibility of different governments in contributing to the crisis and the impact of immigration on housing demand. The conversation concludes with a discussion on public perception of the housing system and the desire for home ownership among New Zealanders. The conversation covers various themes related to housing affordability, foreign ownership, political decision-making, media trust, and population strategy. The chapters explore the misjudgment of public opinion on foreign ownership, the lack of research and facts in political decision-making, the importance of polling and data in politics, the lack of trust in the media, proposed solutions for housing affordability, graph analysis of housing affordability, the need for ambitious housing affordability goals, the role of councils and land availability, the importance of controlling inflation, housing as a basic human right, the need for a population strategy, and the impact of population growth on infrastructure. The conversation emphasizes the urgency to solve the housing crisis and the importance of informed decision-making based on accurate data.

Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Background 02:01 The Housing Crisis 04:24 Accountability and Media Bias 08:22 Housing Affordability Ratio 12:07 Government Responsibility 14:33 Impact of Immigration 20:06 Prime Ministers’ Impact on Housing Prices 23:16 Importance of Home Ownership 24:41 Public Perception of the Housing System 26:11 Future Generations’ Outlook 27:07 Foreign Ownership of Property 27:22 Misjudgment of Public Opinion on Foreign Ownership 28:05 Lack of Research and Facts in Political Decision-Making 29:02 The Importance of Polling and Data in Politics 30:06 Lack of Trust in the Media 31:08 Proposed Solutions for Housing Affordability 32:32 Graph Analysis of Housing Affordability 33:22 The Need for Ambitious Housing Affordability Goals 36:02 The Role of Councils and Land Availability in Housing Affordability 37:00 The Importance of Controlling Inflation 38:42 Housing as a Basic Human Right 39:31 The Need for a Population Strategy 40:54 The Impact of Population Growth on Infrastructure 44:22 The Urgency to Solve the Housing Crisis

Key notes https://kpi.nz/kpi/median-house-price-vs-median-household-income 1. Renters - we haven’t forgotten you! As house prices go up in price, so too do rental prices and vice versa. 2. Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners that share the successes, and the failures, with them. A full list of governments for this time range is at the bottom of this page. 3. You can toggle the household income line on and off by clicking on ‘Median Household Income’ in the legend underneath the graphic. Data sources Data shown: • Median house price in New Zealand from REINZ monthly reports. • Median household incomes as at May of each year, from the HLFS (Household Labour Force Survey). This data starts in 1998, which is why our house prices also start in

PHOTO: Ex PM Dame Ardern had the worst Income to Housing affordability ratio in the last 50 years after campaigning as far back as 2018 for the 2020 election on KIWI BUILD. 100,000 new homes promised and NO poverty. In 2020 the Ardern Government held the complete balance of power and failed on almost all metrics. The two faces of politics Promise versus delivery.

PHOTO: If we’re serious about wanting to improve the housing affordability ratio (medium house price / medium household income) from 6-7x back to 5x, 4x, and, eventually, 3x, then incomes must rise faster than house prices (and, ideally, within inflation targets). Affordable housing isn’t going to happen if prices keep increasing 6%, or even 8%, per year (= doubling every ten years), as history has proven, and many banks and economists are predicting to continue.

However, if house prices increased at 1% per annum (the lower level of the RBNZ’s 1-3% inflation range) and household incomes increased at 3% (the higher target level), then we could return to 5x housing affordability by 2038, and 4x by 2050. Our natural human greed for passive incomes over productive ones, and our self-inflicted inflation addiction, make this a very challenging task, but we’re smart enough if the will is there. Which path shall we pick, New Zealand?



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elocal Digital Edition – March 2024 (#275)

elocal Digital Edition
March 2024 (#275)


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