Articles from ‘Independent News Roundup’ in ‘Geopolitics’

If NATO as a whole remains more or less intact upon the US’ hypothetical exit, and the US then reaches bilateral security deals with Poland, the Baltic States, and Turkiye, then not much would change from Russia’s perspective. · Andrew Korybko · Trump’s latest talk about the US leaving NATO is being taken seriously by many Europeans owing to his rage over their refusal to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not to mention them denying the US…

The Iran war is ending on Trump's schedule, backed by a pre-planned economic and energy strategy that is breaking the transatlantic energy-control system while exposing states and nations that rejected Drill, Baby, Drill. · Barbara Boyd · Barbara Boyd argues the Iran war is being compressed toward a defined endpoint determined by President Trump and key Arab allies in the Abraham Accords, who want Iran no longer to pose a military…

Never before has the US had the dual incentive for radically reforming NATO after the bloc refused its request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US now officially prioritizes restoring its dominance in the Western Hemisphere and containing China over containing Russia. · Andrew Korybko · Trump raged against NATO last week after it refused his request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was analyzed here as throwing the bloc…

The combined effect of the UAE and Saudi Arabia exerting pressure on Russia could really harm its interests. · Andrew Korybko · Zelensky dispatched drone experts and interceptor drones to the Gulf Kingdoms last month to aid them in thwarting Iranian attacks of the sort that Ukraine became accustomed to over the past four years due to Russia using Iranian drones (or domestically produced variants) in its own attacks. It was assessed…

Trump handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause from the World Majority. · Andrew Korybko · Trump declined to enforce the US’ de facto blockade on Cuba for a Russian oil tanker that was carrying enough fuel to meet the island’s needs for approximately one week. In his words, “We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they have to survive. If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now,…

RFK Jr. says his father and uncle would back Trump on Iran and the economy. As sovereign nations bypass NATO to broker peace and Navarro and Bessent name the American System by name, the post-WWII imperial order is writing its own obituary. · Susan Kokinda · Susan Kokinda argues that RFK Jr.’s CPAC remarks—praising Trump’s use of power and saying JFK and RFK would back Trump on Iran, Ukraine, and rebuilding the middle class—cut…

Casual observers might have misinterpreted Zelensky’s claim as suggesting that the US would extend security guarantees to Ukraine if it withdraws from Donbass even if that doesn’t end the conflict. · Andrew Korybko · Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply rebuked Zelensky for claiming last week that the US promised Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for withdrawing from Donbass. In his words, “That’s a lie. I saw him say that and it’s…

To be clear, NATO’s “return to factory settings” won’t automatically entail the success of the US’ grand strategy, but it must be understood in the context thereof as part of Trump 2.0’s global power play. · Andrew Korybko · Politico reported in late February that the US wants NATO to “return to factory settings”, something that Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby described as “NATO 3.0” earlier in the month, which they…

Ukraine has veritably become an exporter of instability across the Global South. · Andrew Korybko · Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova sharply criticized the Ukrainian Embassy’s official response to India’s arrest of six Ukrainian mercenaries (and one American whose involvement they left out) who are accused of violating national security legislation. According to local media reports, they were tasked with training…

Provided that Zelensky and Ukrainskaya Pravda right before him are telling the truth, then it looks like the most meaningful elements of a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal and subsequent Russian-US “New Détente” were already agreed to in Anchorage, but contingent on Ukraine withdrawing from Donbass. · Andrew Korybko · Zelensky confirmed to Reuters last week that reports about the US offering Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for it…