Articles in ‘Geopolitics’

It’s surprisingly pragmatic and could serve as a face-saving off-ramp for Trump 2.0. · Andrew Korybko · Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who represents the interests of his country’s reformist (moderate) faction against its principalist (conservative) rivals, published a proposal about “How Iran Should End the War” at Foreign Affairs. He began by extolling Iran’s resistance as proof of its victory over the US and…

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom · War, Narrative & Escalation — What’s Really Happening? · A rapidly escalating conflict raises serious questions about what’s really happening behind the headlines. · Reports of downed aircraft, disputed intelligence, and growing geopolitical risk suggest a situation far more complex than the official narrative. · This breakdown examines the key developments, the claims being made, and the potential global…

If NATO as a whole remains more or less intact upon the US’ hypothetical exit, and the US then reaches bilateral security deals with Poland, the Baltic States, and Turkiye, then not much would change from Russia’s perspective. · Andrew Korybko · Trump’s latest talk about the US leaving NATO is being taken seriously by many Europeans owing to his rage over their refusal to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not to mention them denying the US…

The Iran war is ending on Trump's schedule, backed by a pre-planned economic and energy strategy that is breaking the transatlantic energy-control system while exposing states and nations that rejected Drill, Baby, Drill. · Barbara Boyd · Barbara Boyd argues the Iran war is being compressed toward a defined endpoint determined by President Trump and key Arab allies in the Abraham Accords, who want Iran no longer to pose a military…

Never before has the US had the dual incentive for radically reforming NATO after the bloc refused its request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US now officially prioritizes restoring its dominance in the Western Hemisphere and containing China over containing Russia. · Andrew Korybko · Trump raged against NATO last week after it refused his request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was analyzed here as throwing the bloc…

The combined effect of the UAE and Saudi Arabia exerting pressure on Russia could really harm its interests. · Andrew Korybko · Zelensky dispatched drone experts and interceptor drones to the Gulf Kingdoms last month to aid them in thwarting Iranian attacks of the sort that Ukraine became accustomed to over the past four years due to Russia using Iranian drones (or domestically produced variants) in its own attacks. It was assessed…

Trump handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause from the World Majority. · Andrew Korybko · Trump declined to enforce the US’ de facto blockade on Cuba for a Russian oil tanker that was carrying enough fuel to meet the island’s needs for approximately one week. In his words, “We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they have to survive. If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now,…

RFK Jr. says his father and uncle would back Trump on Iran and the economy. As sovereign nations bypass NATO to broker peace and Navarro and Bessent name the American System by name, the post-WWII imperial order is writing its own obituary. · Susan Kokinda · Susan Kokinda argues that RFK Jr.’s CPAC remarks—praising Trump’s use of power and saying JFK and RFK would back Trump on Iran, Ukraine, and rebuilding the middle class—cut…

Casual observers might have misinterpreted Zelensky’s claim as suggesting that the US would extend security guarantees to Ukraine if it withdraws from Donbass even if that doesn’t end the conflict. · Andrew Korybko · Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply rebuked Zelensky for claiming last week that the US promised Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for withdrawing from Donbass. In his words, “That’s a lie. I saw him say that and it’s…

To be clear, NATO’s “return to factory settings” won’t automatically entail the success of the US’ grand strategy, but it must be understood in the context thereof as part of Trump 2.0’s global power play. · Andrew Korybko · Politico reported in late February that the US wants NATO to “return to factory settings”, something that Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby described as “NATO 3.0” earlier in the month, which they…